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MARKETING mail links here without ?confirm, and this ACTS rather than showing a confirm button: some clients and security scanners prefetch links, and the failure modes are not symmetric for marketing: honouring an opt-out that a scanner triggered costs one address, while failing to honour a real one earns a spam complaint.

TRANSACTIONAL mail (receipts, verification, password resets) links here WITH ?confirm=1. That asymmetry does not hold there: nobody is complaining about a receipt, and a scanner pre-fetching it must not unsubscribe the customer. So confirm=1 only renders a button, and the button POSTs.