Transportation

Weather-Disruption-Risk index across the forecast horizon (Sugra derived)

Changed on

The conditions-based Weather-Disruption-Risk index computed hour by hour across the forecast horizon for any coordinate worldwide or any reporting airport, with the first crossing into high and into severe called out. Same seven factors, same published thresholds and same MAX-dominant combination as the nowcast; only the inputs move to their forecast equivalents. Every value is a FORECAST and carries uncertainty that grows with lead. This is NOT a delay probability.

get/api/v2/transport/disruption-risk/forecast

Request

  • Base URL: https://sugra.ai
  • URL: https://sugra.ai/api/v2/transport/disruption-risk/forecast
  • Auth: API key in header x-api-key

Query parameters

latnumber nullable

Latitude, decimal degrees.

Example:51.47
lonnumber nullable

Longitude, decimal degrees.

Example:-0.46
airportstring nullable

ICAO or IATA airport code to score instead of a coordinate, e.g. EGLL or LHR.

Example:EGLL
hoursinteger

Forecast horizon in hours, at hourly steps.

Response

Successful Response

Example response

{
  "data": {
    "location": {
      "requested": {
        "lat": 51.47,
        "lon": -0.46,
        "airport": "EGLL",
        "hours": 48
      },
      "resolved": {
        "lat": 40.6394,
        "lon": -73.7789,
        "method": "airport_metar",
        "airport": {
          "code": "KJFK",
          "name": "John F Kennedy International Airport",
          "source": "noaa-awc-metar"
        }
      }
    },
    "issued_at": "2026-07-19T12:00:00Z",
    "summary": {
      "horizon_hours": 48,
      "step_hours": 1,
      "steps": 48,
      "steps_scored": 48,
      "peak": {
        "lead_hours": 14,
        "valid_time": "2026-07-20T02:00:00Z",
        "index": 57.2,
        "band": "high",
        "dominant_driver": "wave"
      },
      "first_high_crossing": {
        "lead_hours": 14,
        "valid_time": "2026-07-20T02:00:00Z",
        "index": 57.2,
        "band": "high",
        "dominant_driver": "wave"
      },
      "first_severe_crossing": {
        "lead_hours": 14,
        "valid_time": "2026-07-20T02:00:00Z",
        "index": 57.2,
        "band": "high",
        "dominant_driver": "wave"
      }
    },
    "series": [
      {
        "lead_hours": 6,
        "valid_time": "2026-07-19T18:00:00Z",
        "index": 61.3,
        "band": "high",
        "dominant_driver": "gust",
        "components_count": 6,
        "factors": {
          "flight_category": {
            "score": 95,
            "category": "LIFR",
            "derivation": "sugra-computed",
            "station": "EGLL",
            "base_category": "VFR",
            "raised_by": {
              "change": "TEMPO",
              "from": "2026-07-19T15:30:00Z",
              "to": "2026-07-19T17:00:00Z"
            }
          },
          "wind": {
            "score": 35,
            "wind_speed_kt": 25
          },
          "gust": {
            "score": 52,
            "wind_gust_kt": 38,
            "gust_spread_kt": 13
          },
          "precipitation": {
            "score": 25,
            "rate_mm_h": 2.5
          },
          "convection": {
            "score": 60,
            "cape_jkg": 2500,
            "advisory": {
              "advisory_type": "SIGMET_US",
              "hazard": "CONVECTIVE",
              "valid_from": "2026-07-19T14:00:00Z",
              "valid_to": "2026-07-19T18:00:00Z"
            }
          },
          "wave": {
            "score": 55,
            "wave_height_m": 2.5,
            "wave_period_s": 7.4
          },
          "hazard_overlay": {
            "score": 60,
            "events": [
              {
                "event_type": "volcanic_ash",
                "event_id": "washington-vaac-2026-393",
                "place": "Santa Maria",
                "severity": "Severe",
                "influence_radius_km": 300,
                "positioning": "forecast_polygon",
                "forecast_valid_time": "2026-07-19T17:30:00Z",
                "lead_confidence": 0.75,
                "score": 60
              }
            ],
            "feeds_read": 3,
            "feeds_total": 3
          }
        }
      }
    ],
    "attribution": {
      "attribution": [
        {
          "registry_key": "sugra/disruption-risk",
          "source_name": "Sugra (computed)",
          "licence": "public-domain"
        }
      ],
      "effective_reexport": "allowed"
    }
  },
  "meta": {
    "endpoint": "/api/v1/fred/us/cpi",
    "data_time": "2026-04-16T14:30:00Z",
    "response_time": "2026-04-16T14:30:12Z",
    "provider": "Sugra API v1.0.1",
    "data_age_days": 8.532,
    "source": "sugra_crypto",
    "attribution": "Short interest and Reg SHO daily short volume data is owned by and sourced from FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority).",
    "fallback_chain": [
      "sugra_crypto",
      "sugra_finance"
    ],
    "stale_since": "2026-09-08T12:00:00Z",
    "period": "2026-Q1",
    "notes": "the UKMTO report behind these counts is dated 2026-08-21 and is 11 days old"
  }
}

Changes