Transportation

Weather-Disruption-Risk index across the forecast horizon (Sugra derived)

The conditions-based Weather-Disruption-Risk index computed hour by hour across the forecast horizon for any coordinate worldwide or any reporting airport, with the first crossing into high and into severe called out. Same seven factors, same published thresholds and same MAX-dominant combination as the nowcast; only the inputs move to their forecast equivalents. Every value is a FORECAST and carries uncertainty that grows with lead. This is NOT a delay probability.

get/api/v2/transport/disruption-risk/forecast

Query parameters

latnumber nullable

Latitude, decimal degrees.

Example:51.47

Latitude, decimal degrees.

lonnumber nullable

Longitude, decimal degrees.

Example:-0.46

Longitude, decimal degrees.

airportstring nullable

ICAO or IATA airport code to score instead of a coordinate, e.g. EGLL or LHR.

Example:EGLL

ICAO or IATA airport code to score instead of a coordinate, e.g. EGLL or LHR.

hoursinteger

Forecast horizon in hours, at hourly steps.

Response

Successful Response

Example response

{
  "data": {
    "location": {
      "requested": {
        "lat": 51.47,
        "lon": -0.46,
        "airport": "EGLL",
        "hours": 48
      },
      "resolved": {
        "lat": 40.6394,
        "lon": -73.7789,
        "method": "airport_metar",
        "airport": {
          "code": "KJFK",
          "name": "John F Kennedy International Airport",
          "source": "noaa-awc-metar"
        }
      }
    },
    "issued_at": "2026-07-19T12:00:00Z",
    "summary": {
      "horizon_hours": 48,
      "step_hours": 1,
      "steps": 48,
      "steps_scored": 48,
      "peak": {
        "lead_hours": 14,
        "valid_time": "2026-07-20T02:00:00Z",
        "index": 57.2,
        "band": "high",
        "dominant_driver": "wave"
      },
      "first_high_crossing": {
        "lead_hours": 14,
        "valid_time": "2026-07-20T02:00:00Z",
        "index": 57.2,
        "band": "high",
        "dominant_driver": "wave"
      },
      "first_severe_crossing": {
        "lead_hours": 14,
        "valid_time": "2026-07-20T02:00:00Z",
        "index": 57.2,
        "band": "high",
        "dominant_driver": "wave"
      }
    },
    "series": [
      {
        "lead_hours": 6,
        "valid_time": "2026-07-19T18:00:00Z",
        "index": 61.3,
        "band": "high",
        "dominant_driver": "gust",
        "components_count": 6,
        "factors": {
          "flight_category": {
            "score": 95,
            "category": "LIFR",
            "derivation": "sugra-computed",
            "station": "EGLL",
            "base_category": "VFR",
            "raised_by": {
              "change": "TEMPO",
              "from": "2026-07-19T15:30:00Z",
              "to": "2026-07-19T17:00:00Z"
            }
          },
          "wind": {
            "score": 35,
            "wind_speed_kt": 25
          },
          "gust": {
            "score": 52,
            "wind_gust_kt": 38,
            "gust_spread_kt": 13
          },
          "precipitation": {
            "score": 25,
            "rate_mm_h": 2.5
          },
          "convection": {
            "score": 60,
            "cape_jkg": 2500,
            "advisory": {
              "advisory_type": "SIGMET_US",
              "hazard": "CONVECTIVE",
              "valid_from": "2026-07-19T14:00:00Z",
              "valid_to": "2026-07-19T18:00:00Z"
            }
          },
          "wave": {
            "score": 55,
            "wave_height_m": 2.5,
            "wave_period_s": 7.4
          },
          "hazard_overlay": {
            "score": 60,
            "events": [
              {
                "event_type": "volcanic_ash",
                "event_id": "washington-vaac-2026-393",
                "place": "Santa Maria",
                "severity": "Severe",
                "influence_radius_km": 300,
                "positioning": "forecast_polygon",
                "forecast_valid_time": "2026-07-19T17:30:00Z",
                "lead_confidence": 0.75,
                "score": 60
              }
            ],
            "feeds_read": 3,
            "feeds_total": 3
          }
        }
      }
    ],
    "attribution": {
      "attribution": [
        {
          "registry_key": "sugra/disruption-risk",
          "source_name": "Sugra (computed)",
          "licence": "public-domain"
        }
      ],
      "effective_reexport": "allowed"
    }
  },
  "meta": {
    "endpoint": "/api/v1/fred/us/cpi",
    "data_time": "2026-04-16T14:30:00Z",
    "response_time": "2026-04-16T14:30:12Z",
    "provider": "Sugra API v1.0.1",
    "data_age_days": 8.532,
    "source": "sugra_crypto",
    "attribution": "Short interest and Reg SHO daily short volume data is owned by and sourced from FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority).",
    "fallback_chain": [
      "sugra_crypto",
      "sugra_finance"
    ],
    "period": "2026-Q1",
    "notes": "the UKMTO report behind these counts is dated 2026-08-21 and is 11 days old"
  }
}

Changes

Changed in 3 of the 25 revisions of this API.16

Sep 1, 2026328d061c12ca3See the full diff
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Aug 8, 20264c4530760ba112See the full diff
- ○
  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
- ○
  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
- ○
  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
- ○
  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
- ○
  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
- ○
  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
- ○
  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
- ○
  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
- ○
  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
- ○
  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
- ○
  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
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  added the optional property to the response with the status
  response-optional-property-added
Jul 26, 20267fc920a3005c1See the full diff
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  endpoint added
  endpoint-added
This revision also has 4 changes that name no endpoint, such as unreferenced schemas being removed. See the revision's changelog

Full history