Fed path ladder: FOMC decision-outcome prices on Polymarket

Per upcoming FOMC meeting (up to four, plus the last decided one), the Polymarket price in percent of each decision outcome: Hold, Cut 25, Cut 50+, Hike 25, Hike 50+. The ladder is the one Polymarket event whose outcome markets carry the most volume; every other market naming the same meeting is listed under side_markets with its share of the ladder's volume (side_pond under 10%). Each leg carries volume, venue-reported liquidity and a book label (thin under $50,000), and with history=true (the default) 90 days of daily closing prices for open meetings. moves lists the days a leg moved 5 points or more, beside the Fed releases and FOMC days of that day and the day before. bond_leg is the 2-year Treasury yield (H.15 via FRED) with the federal funds target range.

meeting (YYYY-MM-DD decision date) keeps one meeting. history=false drops the daily series for a compact answer.

Polymarket only: prices of event contracts on that venue, reported as prices. Not a forecast by Kresmion and not advice. Reproduce meta.attribution when you quote a figure.