public-pm-data

The versioned methodology behind Consensus Probability

Keyless, DB-free disclosure of exactly how the cross-venue Consensus Probability is computed: venue eligibility, one-voice-per-venue weighting, the size-capped weighted MEDIAN estimator, the spread rule, the binary/leader kinds, and the stated limitations.

Current version consensus_probability_v3 (since 2026-10-14): each venue's weight is clamp(openInterest, 1000, 50000) when every venue in the comparison reports USD open interest, otherwise clamp(liquidity, 1000, 50000) exactly as v2. acceptedVersions lists every writer version still served (v2 and v3 during the transition); previousVersions states each earlier version's weight rule.

Every served referenceProbability carries methodologyVersion (the version that ROW was written with, never relabelled) and methodologyUrl; this endpoint is what that URL resolves to. It also carries weightBasis (open_interest | liquidity; every v2 row is liquidity). Pin the version alongside any number you store — it is what lets you tell whether a probability you cached was produced the same way as today's.

A published version's terms never change. If the computation changes, the version changes with it.

Consensus Probability is CoinRithm Data — computed by CoinRithm, free to cite with attribution. It is NOT venue market data and carries no venue redistribution rights.

get/api/prediction-markets/consensus-methodology

Request

  • Base URL: https://api.coinrithm.com
  • URL: https://api.coinrithm.com/api/prediction-markets/consensus-methodology
  • Auth: none required

Response

The versioned methodology descriptor

schema'coinrithm.consensusMethodology.v1'
versionstring

The current writer version, e.g. consensus_probability_v3. Pin a row's own methodologyVersion next to any stored number.

licencestring

Example response

{
  "version": "consensus_probability_v3",
  "methodology": {
    "acceptedVersions": [
      "consensus_probability_v2",
      "consensus_probability_v3"
    ],
    "estimator": {
      "kind": "size_capped_weighted_median"
    }
  }
}

Changes

No recorded changes to this operation across all 1 revision of this API.