nerd

Player-prop value finder (model hit-rate vs market) with backtest

Player-prop value finder: flags props where a player's empirical over/under hit rate (model probability) beats the de-vigged over/under juice (market probability). Edge = model minus market. Two windows: upcoming (default) flags props on games in the next 24h using a trailing lookback-game model; all runs a point-in-time historical backtest and populates a backtest block (record, ROI, average edge). The crude empirical model flags generously, so treat the backtest as a calibration check, not an edge guarantee. Response object keys: model, window, min_edge_pct, lookback, min_games, evaluated, value_found, backtest (null for upcoming), props[]. 5-minute Redis cache. Solo plan or higher: prop value signals start at Solo; Free receives a 403 naming the tier and linking the docs and pricing pages. (The Edge in "Edge = model minus market" above is the statistical quantity, not the plan.)

get/v1/intelligence/value-props

Request

  • Base URL: https://api.bigballsdata.com
  • URL: https://api.bigballsdata.com/v1/intelligence/value-props
  • Auth: one of:
    • API key in header x-api-key
    • HTTP bearer

Query parameters

window'upcoming' | 'all'

upcoming: next-24h props, live model. all: point-in-time historical backtest.

min_edgenumber

Minimum model-minus-market edge in percentage points.

market'points' | 'rebounds' | 'assists' | 'points_rebounds_assists' | 'threes'

Restrict to one prop market. Omit for all markets.

lookbackinteger

upcoming: trailing games in the model sample. all: scoring window.

min_gamesinteger

Minimum games of history required to flag a prop.

limitinteger

Response

ok

object required

Changes

No recorded changes to this operation across all 2 revisions of this API.