AI hardware bottleneck board: eight points where AI accelerator supply can stall (CoWoS-L, HBM, TSMC N3, the HBM base d…

AI hardware bottleneck board: eight points where AI accelerator supply can stall (CoWoS-L, HBM, TSMC N3, the HBM base die, large ABF substrates, T-glass, test equipment, InP lasers), each with a judged state (loose / balanced / tight / allocated / sold_out, or watch), the evidence behind it, five standard numbers (lead time, price change, share under contract, customer deposits, capacity) with an A–D evidence grade and source links, what would change the state, and the next dated checkpoint. Also returns the customer-deposit table and claims that failed against primary sources. States move only on A or B evidence; judgments are weekly and never overwritten. Fully public at full fidelity, judgment history included.