Counterfactual Query

Explore counterfactual scenarios (Hypothetical reasoning).

This implements the third level of Pearl's Causal Ladder: "What if I HAD done X?" (exploring alternate histories)

Creates a counterfactual scenario (hypothetical) and tracks it:

• When the condition manifests in reality, record actual outcomes
• Calculate accuracy of predictions
• Learn from mismatches to improve causal understanding

Why This Matters

Learning requires counterfactual reasoning:

• "I predicted X would happen if I did Y. Did it actually happen?"
• "What would've happened if I chose differently?"
• Improves causal edge strength based on prediction accuracy

This is how agents improve via experience: predict → observe → validate.

Args: request: Condition and query current_user: Authenticated user db: Database session

Returns: Created counterfactual scenario ID

Example: ``` Condition: "If I had responded earlier" Query: {"outcome": "user_satisfaction"}

Returns:
{
    "scenario_id": "cf_456",
    "condition": "If I had responded earlier",
    "status": "pending"
}

When reality manifests:
{
    "scenario_id": "cf_456",
    "condition": "If I had responded earlier",
    "status": "resolved",
    "predicted": {"user_satisfaction": 0.85},
    "actual": {"user_satisfaction": 0.88},
    "accuracy": 0.97
}
```