How well the NBA projection models track one player

Per-player reconciliation of our pre-game projections (points, rebounds, assists, threes) against the realized box score, for games the player STARTED — projections assume the starting five, so a late scratch is excluded rather than counted as a miss. player accepts the display name ("LeBron James") or its slug ("lebron-james"). Returns per-stat accuracy (model MAE vs a naive rolling-average baseline, CRPS-based distributional skill), a predictability score (points + rebounds skill), and the most recent started games with expected vs actual values and the pre-game p10-p90 band. source distinguishes the full-season holdout backtest (2025-26) from live next-day reconciliation (from the 2026-27 season). Typical use: decide whether to trust today's projection for a fantasy start/sit call by checking how the model has tracked that player recently.