Options-implied probability ladder for BTC/ETH (Deribit) — $0.02/call

Returns the options market's probability that BTC or ETH is above each of up to 25 prices at a target time, backed out of the Deribit option book: a skew-inclusive call-spread digital on the mark-IV smile, with total variance interpolated in time between listed expiries. It is the fair value of a prediction-market crypto threshold contract (Kalshi, Polymarket) — compare probability_above with the contract's YES price. Risk-neutral, not a forecast. Malformed input is refused with a free 400 before any payment. $0.02 USDC on Base mainnet via x402. BTC and ETH only.

get/api/v1/implied-prob/{asset}

Request

Base URL: https://kronossignals.com (the document declares no server; this is the origin it was published from)
URL: https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/{asset}
Auth: none declared

Path parameters

asset'btc' | 'eth' required

Asset slug (lowercase). Only btc and eth (Deribit option markets).

Query parameters

strikesstring

Example:85000,90000

Comma-separated prices, 1-25. Default: a ±1-10% ladder around the forward.

atstring

Example:2026-01-02T16:00:00Z

Target time: ISO-8601 with a timezone, or a Unix timestamp. Default: the nearest Deribit expiry (08:00 UTC).

Response

Probability ladder returned (payment verified)

availableboolean

assetstring

target_timestring date-time

hours_to_targetnumber

index_pricenumber nullable

forward_at_targetnumber

warningstring

expiries_usedobject[]

defaults_appliedobject

how_to_usestring

methodstring

limitationsstring[]

sourcestring

as_ofstring date-time

cache_ttl_secinteger

disclaimerstring

Changes

No recorded changes to this operation across all 1 revision of this API.