--- title: "Weather-Disruption-Risk index across the forecast horizon (Sugra derived)" method: GET path: "/api/v2/transport/disruption-risk/forecast" tags: ["Transportation"] --- # Weather-Disruption-Risk index across the forecast horizon (Sugra derived) `GET /api/v2/transport/disruption-risk/forecast` The conditions-based Weather-Disruption-Risk index computed hour by hour across the forecast horizon for any coordinate worldwide or any reporting airport, with the first crossing into high and into severe called out. Same seven factors, same published thresholds and same MAX-dominant combination as the nowcast; only the inputs move to their forecast equivalents. Every value is a FORECAST and carries uncertainty that grows with lead. This is NOT a delay probability. ## Query parameters - `lat` number, nullable — Latitude, decimal degrees. - `lon` number, nullable — Longitude, decimal degrees. - `airport` string, nullable — ICAO or IATA airport code to score instead of a coordinate, e.g. EGLL or LHR. - `hours` integer — Forecast horizon in hours, at hourly steps. ## Response `200` Successful Response - EnvelopeDisruptionRiskForecastFeed - `data` DisruptionRiskForecastFeed, required - `location` ForecastLocation, required - `requested` ForecastRequestedLocation, required - `lat` number, nullable - `lon` number, nullable - `airport` string, nullable - `hours` integer, required — Requested horizon in hours. - `resolved` DisruptionResolvedLocation, required - `lat` number, required - `lon` number, required — Longitude normalized to [-180, 180). - `method` string, required — How the coordinate was resolved: coordinates | airport_metar | airport_catalog. - `airport` DisruptionAirport - `code` string, required — The airport code as resolved, upper-cased. - `name` string, nullable — Airport name; null when the code was matched against a current report. - `source` string, required — Where the coordinate came from: noaa-awc-metar | ourairports. - `issued_at` string, nullable — Valid time of the first step - the earliest hour this forecast describes. - `summary` DisruptionRiskForecastSummary, required - `horizon_hours` integer, required - `step_hours` integer, required - `steps` integer, required — Steps returned, including any that could not be scored. - `steps_scored` integer, required - `peak` DisruptionRiskCrossing - `lead_hours` integer, required - `valid_time` string, required - `index` number, required - `band` string, required - `dominant_driver` string, nullable - `first_high_crossing` DisruptionRiskCrossing - `lead_hours` integer, required - `valid_time` string, required - `index` number, required - `band` string, required - `dominant_driver` string, nullable - `first_severe_crossing` DisruptionRiskCrossing - `lead_hours` integer, required - `valid_time` string, required - `index` number, required - `band` string, required - `dominant_driver` string, nullable - `series` DisruptionRiskStep[] — Hourly steps, ascending by lead. - `lead_hours` integer, required — Hours ahead of the current hour. - `valid_time` string, required — Valid time of this step, ISO 8601 UTC. - `index` number, nullable — Forecast index 0-100, or null when fewer than two factors could be evaluated at this step. A null step is KEPT, never dropped. - `band` string, nullable — low | moderate | high | severe; null with a null index. - `dominant_driver` string, nullable - `components_count` integer, required - `factors` ForecastStepFactors, required - `flight_category` ForecastFlightCategoryFactor - `score` number, required - `category` string, required — NOAA flight category at this step. - `derivation` string, required — Always sugra-computed: a TAF carries no flight category, so it is derived from the period ceiling and visibility. - `station` string, nullable — Station whose TAF was used. - `distance_km` number, nullable - `base_category` string, nullable — The prevailing group's category, before any overlay. - `raised_by` ForecastFlightCategoryOverlay - `change` string, required — TAF change group that raised the category: TEMPO | PROB. - `from` string, nullable - `to` string, nullable - `wind` ForecastWindFactor - `score` number, required - `wind_speed_kt` number, required — Forecast 10 m wind, knots (knots at source). - `gust` ForecastGustFactor - `score` number, required - `wind_gust_kt` number, required - `gust_spread_kt` number, nullable - `precipitation` ForecastPrecipitationFactor - `score` number, required - `rate_mm_h` number, nullable — Forecast precipitation rate, mm per hour. - `convection` ForecastConvectionFactor - `score` number, required - `cape_jkg` number, nullable — Convective available potential energy, J/kg. Potential, not realisation. - `advisory` ConvectiveAdvisoryRef - `advisory_type` string, nullable - `hazard` string, nullable - `valid_from` string, nullable - `valid_to` string, nullable - `distance_km` number, nullable — 0 when the point falls inside the advisory polygon; otherwise the distance to the advisory centroid. - `wave` ForecastWaveFactor - `score` number, required - `wave_height_m` number, nullable - `wave_period_s` number, nullable - `hazard_overlay` ForecastHazardOverlayFactor - `score` number, required - `events` ForecastHazardEvent[] — Only events that scored above zero, worst first. - `event_type` string, required - `event_id` string, nullable - `place` string, nullable - `severity` string, nullable - `distance_km` number, required - `influence_radius_km` number, required — Scoring influence radius. NOT an official warning area. - `positioning` string, required — forecast_polygon when the advisory published a forecast geometry valid at this step, observed_position_held otherwise. - `forecast_valid_time` string, nullable — Valid time of the forecast polygon used, when one was. - `lead_confidence` number, required — Confidence multiplier applied at this lead. 1.0 for a real forecast geometry; decays linearly for a held observed position. - `score` number, required — Severity after distance decay and lead confidence. - `feeds_read` integer, required - `feeds_total` integer, required - `unavailable_factors` object — Factor name to the reason it could not be evaluated at this step. An absent factor is excluded from the combination, never scored as zero. - `thresholds` object — The complete published threshold set, including the forecast-only additions (CAPE curve, hazard lead confidence, TAF category resolution), echoed so any step can be reproduced. - `methodology` string, required - `attribution` DisruptionAttribution, required - `attribution` DisruptionAttributionEntry[] — The Sugra-derived entry first (no sovereign shield), then every base source that actually contributed to this point. - `registry_key` string, required - `source_name` string, required - `licence` string, nullable - `citation` string, nullable — Modified-form citation; absent on the Sugra-derived entry itself. - `disclaimer` string, required - `effective_reexport` string, required — Most-restrictive re-export verdict across the contributing bases. - `disclaimer` string, required - `meta` SugraMeta, required — Metadata on a /api/v1/* response envelope built through `helpers.response.sugra_response`, which is how routes are expected to answer. A route that assembles its own `meta` dict carries only the keys it writes itself, so an optional field below can be absent because this response has nothing to report OR because that route does not build its envelope here - the two are not distinguishable from the outside (API-43). - `endpoint` string, required — Requested endpoint path. - `data_time` string, required — ISO 8601 timestamp the data on this response is stamped with. It is the source's own timestamp whenever the source supplied one this API could read; when it did not, this field falls back to the value of `response_time` and `data_age_days` is omitted, so the PRESENCE of that field is the signal to read - with the one exception named in its own description, a route that substitutes its own current time for a source timestamp it never received. Usually UTC (`Z`), but a source stating its own numeric offset keeps it (2026-04-16T14:30:00+09:00) rather than being converted a second time. For a source that publishes by period this is the period's START (see `period`) and for one that publishes by calendar day it is that day's midnight - in neither case a moment at which anything was observed or released. - `response_time` string, required — ISO 8601 UTC timestamp when this response was produced. - `provider` string, required — API name and version. - `data_age_days` number, nullable — Age of the data in days at the moment this response was produced, i.e. `response_time` minus `data_time`. Present ONLY when the timestamp this response is stamped with is a clock time that could be read as a real instant. It is ABSENT - never 0 - in every other case. Absent when no readable source timestamp was supplied, because `data_time` then repeats `response_time` and a zero age would assert that the data is current precisely where its true age is unknown. Absent when the source names a calendar day, a month, a quarter or a year (see `period`): the instant is then a boundary this API anchored at midnight, and time since a day or a quarter BEGAN is a different quantity from the age of the data - a daily series is out by up to a day, a quarterly one by up to a quarter. A midnight counts as such a boundary whichever zone it is stated in, and whether the source stated it or this API anchored it. The one case this field cannot see is a route that substitutes its own current time for a source timestamp it never received: the substituted value is a real, readable instant and is indistinguishable from one the source stated, so the age reads as roughly 0. The shared cache-and-fetch helper behind most routes stopped doing that (API-43), but the presence of this field is a statement about the timestamp the response carries, not a guarantee about the route that supplied it. Rounded to 0.001 day (86.4 seconds), so 0.0 is a real measured age anywhere within roughly +/-43 seconds and not a stand-in for unknown; a source stamping an instant in the future reports a negative value (-0.001 or less) rather than being clamped. Sources publish on very different cadences, so a non-zero age is normal, not an error. Preserve absence in client code: a generated client that materialises a missing optional number as its numeric default turns 'age unknown' back into 'age zero', which is the exact confusion this field exists to remove. - `source` string, nullable — Identifier of the primary upstream source used for this response. - `attribution` string, nullable — Human-readable attribution mandated by an upstream source (e.g. a securities regulator or self-regulatory organization). Present only on responses whose source requires the owner and source to be clearly identified. Do not remove or alter it when using the response. - `fallback_used` boolean, nullable — True when the primary source failed and a fallback produced the data. - `fallback_chain` string[], nullable — Ordered list of sources attempted, in the order they were tried. - `cached` boolean, nullable — True when this response was served from the internal cache. - `stale` boolean, nullable — True when the cached response was returned after the upstream rate-limited or errored. Clients can use this to detect degraded data. - `period` string, nullable — Unit of observation, when the source publishes by period rather than by instant. `data_time` carries the period's START instant so it stays machine-readable; this field preserves what that instant used to mean, which the conversion would otherwise erase. Present only for such sources, and only when the source hands the API the label itself - a client that converts the period to its start instant before building the envelope loses the label, though not the age exclusion, which is decided by the instant. Note that `data_age_days` is omitted whenever this is present, because an age measured from a period start is not a freshness figure. - `notes` string, nullable — Data-quality caveat about THIS response - how old the underlying report is, a chokepoint AIS lower-bound, or that a source-reported `data_time` could not be read and the response time is shown instead. Distinct from `attribution`, which is a licensing obligation. Multiple caveats are joined with ' | '. Present only when there is one. ## Other responses - `401` — Missing or invalid `x-api-key` header. JSON body with a stable `code` distinguishing `missing_api_key` (no header sent) from `invalid_api_key` (header sent, key not accepted); any other 401 source carries the generic `unauthorized` with its detail as `reason`. Plus `hint`. `plan` is always null on 401 - an unauthenticated request has no plan; quota exhaustion is 429, not 401. - `422` — Validation Error - `429` — Daily rate limit exceeded. Check `X-RateLimit-Reset` for the next window. - `503` — Upstream source is temporarily unavailable. Retry after a short delay. ## Changes - **2026-09-01** `328d061c12ca` — 3 info - added the optional property `meta/data_age_days` to the response with the `200` status - added the optional property `meta/notes` to the response with the `200` status - added the optional property `meta/period` to the response with the `200` status - **2026-08-08** `4c4530760ba1` — 12 info - added the optional property `code` to the response with the `401` status - added the optional property `code` to the response with the `429` status - added the optional property `code` to the response with the `503` status - added the optional property `hint` to the response with the `401` status - …8 more - **2026-07-26** `7fc920a3005c` — 1 info - endpoint added [Change history](https://skmtc.dev/sugra/apis/sugra-api/changes/api/v2/transport/disruption-risk/forecast/get.md) --- [API](https://skmtc.dev/sugra/apis/sugra-api.md) · [All operations](https://skmtc.dev/sugra/apis/sugra-api/llms.txt) · [OpenAPI document](https://skmtc-service-production.skmtc.workers.dev/v1/apis/sugra/sugra-api/revisions/68953d8a221b/schema)