---
title: "Crowd calibration + Brier score"
method: GET
path: "/prediction/calibration"
tags: ["prediction"]
---

# Crowd calibration + Brier score

`GET /prediction/calibration`

## Request

- Base URL: `https://kresmion.com/v1`
- URL: `https://kresmion.com/v1/prediction/calibration`
- Auth: HTTP bearer

How calibrated the crowd has been: the market probability recorded a measured lead before settlement, bucketed against the actual outcome, with a Brier score (0 = perfect, 0.25 = a coin flip), per-category Brier, and longshot / near-certain tail bias. Polymarket markets only. Segmented by market type, so no score is pooled across populations that differ in horizon and correlation, and any figure whose sample cannot carry it is returned as null with a stated reason. `venue` accepts `all` or `polymarket` for backward compatibility; both mean Polymarket. Historical framing only.

## Query parameters

- `venue` string, nullable
- `market_type` string, nullable

## Headers

- `authorization` string, nullable

## Response `200`

Successful Response

- object

## Other responses

- `422`: Validation Error

---

[API](https://skmtc.dev/kresmion/apis/kresmion-api.md) · [All operations](https://skmtc.dev/kresmion/apis/kresmion-api/llms.txt) · [OpenAPI document](https://skmtc.dev/kresmion/apis/kresmion-api/revisions/a94962dddccb?raw)