---
title: "Fed path ladder: FOMC decision-outcome prices on Polymarket"
method: GET
path: "/macro/fed/path"
tags: ["macro"]
---

# Fed path ladder: FOMC decision-outcome prices on Polymarket

`GET /macro/fed/path`

## Request

- Base URL: `https://kresmion.com/v1`
- URL: `https://kresmion.com/v1/macro/fed/path`
- Auth: HTTP bearer

Per upcoming FOMC meeting (up to four, plus the last decided one), the Polymarket price in percent of each decision outcome: Hold, Cut 25, Cut 50+, Hike 25, Hike 50+. The ladder is the one Polymarket event whose outcome markets carry the most volume; every other market naming the same meeting is listed under `side_markets` with its share of the ladder's volume (`side_pond` under 10%). Each leg carries volume, venue-reported liquidity and a `book` label (`thin` under $50,000), and with `history=true` (the default) 90 days of daily closing prices for open meetings. `moves` lists the days a leg moved 5 points or more, beside the Fed releases and FOMC days of that day and the day before. `bond_leg` is the 2-year Treasury yield (H.15 via FRED) with the federal funds target range.

`meeting` (YYYY-MM-DD decision date) keeps one meeting. `history=false` drops the daily series for a compact answer.

Polymarket only: prices of event contracts on that venue, reported as prices. Not a forecast by Kresmion and not advice. Reproduce `meta.attribution` when you quote a figure.

## Query parameters

- `meeting` string, nullable: One FOMC decision date, YYYY-MM-DD (e.g. 2026-10-28). Omit for every meeting served.
- `history` boolean: Include the 90-day daily price history per leg and the 2-year yield series.

## Headers

- `authorization` string, nullable

## Response `200`

Successful Response

- object

## Other responses

- `422`: Validation Error

---

[API](https://skmtc.dev/kresmion/apis/kresmion-api.md) · [All operations](https://skmtc.dev/kresmion/apis/kresmion-api/llms.txt) · [OpenAPI document](https://skmtc.dev/kresmion/apis/kresmion-api/revisions/a94962dddccb?raw)