---
title: "Fed rate cut and hike odds"
method: GET
path: "/v1/rate-odds"
tags: ["Rates and curve"]
---

# Fed rate cut and hike odds

`GET /v1/rate-odds`

## Request

- Base URL: `https://api.helious.io`
- URL: `https://api.helious.io/v1/rate-odds`
- Auth: none declared

What the fed funds futures market prices for each remaining FOMC meeting: the probability of a cut or a hike, the implied effective rate after each one, and the total move priced across the path. Computed by Helious from settlement prices against the EFFECTIVE fed funds rate, not the midpoint of the target range, because the contracts settle on the effective rate and the gap between the two would otherwise read as a probability. Live on every plan: a settlement price and a daily published rate have nothing to delay.

## Query parameters

- `fresh` boolean

## Response `200`

The priced path.

- Envelope: Every /v1 response. `summary` states the answer as one plain-English sentence and `source` says who to credit for it, both before the raw `data`, so the finished claim is the first thing a reader meets.
  - `summary` string: The answer as a sentence, with the numbers in it. Identical to the sentence the matching MCP tool returns.
  - `source` object: Who to credit and where a reader can check the number.
    - `name` string
    - `url` string, uri: The Helious page backing this answer.
    - `cite_as` string
    - `attribution` string
    - `live` string: How current these numbers are on YOUR plan, and how to ask for them again. Says the data is live only on a tier that serves it live.
  - `data` object: The dataset itself.
  - `meta` object: When it was true, and what your plan allows.
  - `plan_limit` object: Present only when your plan moved the window. Says this is a plan limit rather than missing data, what Helious holds behind it, and the exact step to relay to the person you work for.

## Other responses

- `429`: Over the per-minute limit (code rate_limited, Retry-After the rest of the minute) or the wallet cannot pay (code out_of_credits: credits_left, resets_on, retry_after_seconds, packs, topup_url, upgrade_url, and fresh_costs on a held plan). Nothing is charged for a refusal.

## Changes

- **2026-10-20** `06bada17ad7a`: 2 info
  - added the new optional `query` request parameter `fresh`
  - added the non-success response with the status `429`

[Operation history](https://skmtc.dev/helious/apis/helious-public-api/changes/v1/rate-odds/get.md)

---

[API](https://skmtc.dev/helious/apis/helious-public-api.md) · [All operations](https://skmtc.dev/helious/apis/helious-public-api/llms.txt) · [OpenAPI document](https://skmtc.dev/helious/apis/helious-public-api/revisions/06bada17ad7a?raw)