---
title: "The versioned methodology behind Consensus Probability"
method: GET
path: "/api/prediction-markets/consensus-methodology"
tags: ["public-pm-data"]
---

# The versioned methodology behind Consensus Probability

`GET /api/prediction-markets/consensus-methodology`

## Request

- Base URL: `https://api.coinrithm.com`
- URL: `https://api.coinrithm.com/api/prediction-markets/consensus-methodology`
- Auth: none required

Keyless, DB-free disclosure of exactly how the cross-venue Consensus
Probability is computed: venue eligibility, one-voice-per-venue
weighting, the size-capped weighted MEDIAN estimator, the spread rule,
the binary/leader kinds, and the stated limitations.

Current version `consensus_probability_v3` (since 2026-10-14): each
venue's weight is clamp(openInterest, 1000, 50000) when every venue in
the comparison reports USD open interest, otherwise
clamp(liquidity, 1000, 50000) exactly as v2. `acceptedVersions` lists
every writer version still served (v2 and v3 during the transition);
`previousVersions` states each earlier version's weight rule.

Every served `referenceProbability` carries `methodologyVersion` (the
version that ROW was written with, never relabelled) and
`methodologyUrl`; this endpoint is what that URL resolves to. It also
carries `weightBasis` (`open_interest` | `liquidity`; every v2 row is
`liquidity`). Pin the version alongside any number you store — it is
what lets you tell whether a probability you cached was produced the
same way as today's.

A published version's terms never change. If the computation changes,
the version changes with it.

Consensus Probability is CoinRithm Data — computed by CoinRithm, free to
cite with attribution. It is NOT venue market data and carries no venue
redistribution rights.

## Response `200`

The versioned methodology descriptor

- object
  - `schema` 'coinrithm.consensusMethodology.v1'
  - `version` string: The current writer version, e.g. consensus_probability_v3. Pin a row's own methodologyVersion next to any stored number.
  - `methodology` object
    - `version` string
    - `acceptedVersions` string[]: Writer versions currently served; each reference row carries its own.
    - `summary` string
    - `weighting` object
      - `weight` string: The weight expression.
      - `floor` number
      - `cap` number
      - `basis` object: When each `weightBasis` applies.
        - `open_interest` string
        - `liquidity` string
    - `estimator` object
      - `kind` string
      - `why` string
    - `previousVersions` object[]: Earlier versions still served, with the weight each used.
      - `version` string
      - `weight` string
  - `licence` string

---

[API](https://skmtc.dev/coinrithm/apis/coinrithm-agent-trading-api.md) · [All operations](https://skmtc.dev/coinrithm/apis/coinrithm-agent-trading-api/llms.txt) · [OpenAPI document](https://skmtc.dev/coinrithm/apis/coinrithm-agent-trading-api/revisions/28fb59f285fe?raw)