---
title: "WC2026 group advancement probabilities (Monte Carlo)"
method: GET
path: "/v1/wc2026/group/{group}/advancement"
tags: ["nerd"]
---

# WC2026 group advancement probabilities (Monte Carlo)

`GET /v1/wc2026/group/{group}/advancement`

## Request

- Base URL: `https://api.bigballsdata.com`
- URL: `https://api.bigballsdata.com/v1/wc2026/group/{group}/advancement`
- Auth: one of:
  - API key in header `x-api-key`
  - HTTP bearer

Per-team probability of finishing 1st/2nd/3rd/4th in one group, from a
10,000-iteration Monte Carlo over the remaining fixtures anchored on the
current standings. p_advance = p_1st + p_2nd; p_third_contention is the
raw P(3rd) (cross-group best-third resolution lives in
/v1/formulas/wc2026/progression). Response object keys: group,
iterations, matches_played, matches_remaining, teams[] (team {id, name,
elo}, current {played, points, gd}, p_1st, p_2nd, p_3rd, p_4th,
p_advance, p_third_contention, p_eliminated), as_of. 1-hour Redis cache.

## Path parameters

- `group` string, required

## Response `200`

ok

- object

## Other responses

- `400`: invalid group letter
- `404`: group does not have 4 rated teams

---

[API](https://skmtc.dev/bigballsdata/apis/big-ball-sports-api.md) · [All operations](https://skmtc.dev/bigballsdata/apis/big-ball-sports-api/llms.txt) · [OpenAPI document](https://skmtc.dev/bigballsdata/apis/big-ball-sports-api/revisions/31fb54ac414e?raw)