---
title: "Player-prop value finder (model hit-rate vs market) with backtest"
method: GET
path: "/v1/intelligence/value-props"
tags: ["nerd"]
---

# Player-prop value finder (model hit-rate vs market) with backtest

`GET /v1/intelligence/value-props`

## Request

- Base URL: `https://api.bigballsdata.com`
- URL: `https://api.bigballsdata.com/v1/intelligence/value-props`
- Auth: one of:
  - API key in header `x-api-key`
  - HTTP bearer

Player-prop value finder: flags props where a player's empirical
over/under hit rate (model probability) beats the de-vigged over/under
juice (market probability). Edge = model minus market. Two windows:
`upcoming` (default) flags props on games in the next 24h using a
trailing `lookback`-game model; `all` runs a point-in-time historical
backtest and populates a `backtest` block (record, ROI, average edge).
The crude empirical model flags generously, so treat the backtest as a
calibration check, not an edge guarantee. Response object keys: model,
window, min_edge_pct, lookback, min_games, evaluated, value_found,
backtest (null for upcoming), props[]. 5-minute Redis cache.
**Solo plan or higher**: prop value signals start at Solo; Free
receives a 403 naming the tier and linking the docs and pricing pages.
(The `Edge` in "Edge = model minus market" above is the statistical
quantity, not the plan.)

## Query parameters

- `window` 'upcoming' | 'all'
- `sport` string
- `min_edge` number
- `market` 'points' | 'rebounds' | 'assists' | 'points_rebounds_assists' | 'threes'
- `lookback` integer
- `min_games` integer
- `limit` integer

## Response `200`

ok

- object

## Other responses

- `400`: invalid query
- `403`: plan_required (Solo or higher)

## Changes

- **2026-10-20** `31fb54ac414e`: 1 info
  - added the new optional `query` request parameter `sport`

[Operation history](https://skmtc.dev/bigballsdata/apis/big-ball-sports-api/changes/v1/intelligence/value-props/get.md)

---

[API](https://skmtc.dev/bigballsdata/apis/big-ball-sports-api.md) · [All operations](https://skmtc.dev/bigballsdata/apis/big-ball-sports-api/llms.txt) · [OpenAPI document](https://skmtc.dev/bigballsdata/apis/big-ball-sports-api/revisions/31fb54ac414e?raw)