---
title: "AGI arrival forecasts from prediction markets — free"
method: GET
path: "/v1/data/risk/agi"
tags: ["data"]
---

# AGI arrival forecasts from prediction markets — free

`GET /v1/data/risk/agi`

## Request

- Base URL: `https://x402.asterpay.io`
- URL: `https://x402.asterpay.io/v1/data/risk/agi`
- Auth: none required

Open Manifold markets on when AGI arrives (and Metaculus community medians when a token is configured). Aggregated crowd forecasts, not AsterPay predictions. Source: Manifold Markets / Metaculus (public APIs, attribution). Cadence: daily; observed_at in the response is the upstream timestamp.

## Response `200`

AGI arrival forecasts from prediction markets

- object
  - `success` boolean, required
  - `data` object, required: Door-specific payload; see the door description and GET /v1/data for an example URL
  - `source` object, required
    - `name` string, required
    - `url` string, required
    - `license` string, required
  - `observed_at` string, nullable, required: Upstream publication/observation time (ISO 8601). Never the AsterPay fetch time.
  - `fetched_at` string, required: When AsterPay last fetched from the upstream
  - `cadence` 'live' | '5m' | '15m' | 'hourly' | 'daily' | 'weekly' | 'monthly' | 'yearly', required
  - `next_expected` string, nullable: Earliest time a newer upstream value is expected
  - `cache_expires_at` string
  - `stale` boolean, required: true when the upstream failed and a cached copy under 24h old was served
  - `timestamp` string, required

---

[API](https://skmtc.dev/asterpay/apis/asterpay-data-api.md) · [All operations](https://skmtc.dev/asterpay/apis/asterpay-data-api/llms.txt) · [OpenAPI document](https://skmtc.dev/asterpay/apis/asterpay-data-api/revisions/97b4ab464b3b?raw)